Insurance threshold calculator
Insurance is a bet against a small probability. This instrument prices both sides of that bet and names the declared value where the answer changes.
Value and cover inputs
Expected loss comparison
Premium
$4.50Expected loss without insurance
$1.50Expected loss with insurance
$5.20Effective payout cap after excess
$80.00Break-even declared value
$2000Not insuring produces the lower expected loss at this declared value.
The result depends on the probability you selected. We hold no measured parcel-loss dataset for this route, so the probability is your assumption and the comparison inherits it.
Parameters and when they were checked
| Parameter | Default | Range | Basis | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declared value | 150 USD | 1–10000 | The value you declare and the value a claim would be measured against. | 2026-W40 |
| Premium | 3 % of declared | 0.1–20 | The insurance charge as a percentage of declared value. | 2026-W40 |
| Line cover limit | 100 USD | 0–10000 | The maximum the chosen line pays out. Anything above this is uninsured regardless of premium. | 2026-W40 |
| Excess | 20 USD | 0–1000 | The amount deducted from a payout before it reaches you. | 2026-W40 |
| Loss probability band | 1 % (your estimate) | 0.1–20 | A band you choose. We do not publish a measured loss rate, so this is your input, not our claim. | 2026-W40 |
- Source:
- Defaults are our starting figures; every one of them is editable on this page.
- Sample:
- Parameter rows carry no sample count of their own. Where a row depends on data, the sample is stated on the page that publishes it.
- Recorded:
- 2026-W40
- Known gap:
- These defaults are planning figures. Your own quote or invoice is the authority.
How to read the result
- Expected loss without insurance is the loss probability multiplied by the declared value.
- Expected loss with insurance adds the premium and then applies the loss probability to the amount a payout would actually leave you, after the excess.
- The break-even value is where the two expected losses meet. Above it, insuring reduces expected loss; below it, it does not.
- A cover limit below your declared value caps the payout. The calculation reflects that cap, which is why a high premium on a capped line can still lose.
- We hold no measured parcel-loss dataset for this route. The probability band is yours to set, and the result inherits your assumption.
Using it
- Open the instrument above. It calculates with the defaults immediately, so there is nothing to set up before you see a result.
- Replace the defaults with your own figures. Each field names what it expects and which week its default was checked.
- Read the result panel. If a field falls outside its expected range, the page says so and pauses the calculation rather than returning a figure built on bad input.
- Use Reset to return every field to its default. Nothing you type is sent anywhere or stored after you leave the page, except the QC checklist, which stays in your browser.
Questions that come up
What is the most common mistake here?
Paying a premium against a cover limit that is lower than the declared value. The premium is charged on the declared figure; the payout is capped.
Should I insure a cheap parcel?
Run the numbers. Below the break-even value the premium costs more than the expected loss, which is a mathematical answer rather than a recommendation.